The dynamic ups and downs of human systems

No matter how hard we try to keep things simple and under control, many man-made systems turn out to be – or to become over time – quite complex and unpredictable. Despite our effort. Against our intentions. In stark contrast to our preference for simple, linear, static, controllable, predictable systems. Computer software, stock markets and tax codes are […]

Who bears the risk of innovation failure?

Innovation is all about novelty, about charting new territory and sailing unknown waters. This implies that the outcome of any innovative endeavour is by no means certain, let alone predetermined. On the contrary, innovation clearly entails risk, and in fact two different types of risk: one is for the innovator, the other for the society he’s […]

Dealing with uncertainty

The Three Horizons present a powerful concept that helps us think about the future, that gives structure to our vision and ideas, our plans and concerns. This concept derives its strength from acknowledge the emergent character of the future, introducing three time horizons that coexist at any point in time, though in an evolving pattern. The first Horizon (H1) […]

On leadership

To state it upfront: innovation is an investment. It ties up resources that could be used for other purposes. But rather then expending them here and now, they are put in the bank in hopes of some dividend, some return on investment at a later stage. Innovation ties up money, people, material, facilities, often significant amounts […]

The myth of unlimited capacity

Humanity has proved to be incredibly innovative in adjusting our living conditions to our advantage. This success story appears to predate written history, and one might draw the conclusion to our collective ingenuity was absolutely superior and capable of mastering any kind of problem. But is this really true?? Let’s think twice. Our track record […]